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As Donald Trump prepares for his swearing-in as the nation’s 45th president, a new survey by the Hoover Institution at Stanford University shows that most Californians aren’t in line with several key proposals that could impact the entire country.
Hoover’s Golden State Poll, administered by the survey research firm YouGov and designed in conjunction with Stanford’s Bill Lane Center for the American West, finds Californians bearish on Trump’s prospects — 36 percent believe he’ll succeed; 46 percent say he won’t.
While a majority of survey respondents (55 percent) favor lowering personal income taxes, other aspects of the Trump agenda are far less popular.
48 percent of Californians believe the state would be worse off if the Affordable Care Act, known as Obamacare, is repealed while 34 percent said it would be better off with repeal.
45 percent of the respondents said Californians would be worse off with a border wall between the U.S. and Mexico while 35 percent said the state would be better off with the wall.
Other facets of the Trump agenda were above water, but not overwhelmingly so. Forty-one percent of survey respondents see ending what Trump has labeled “unfair trade practices” as a California net-positive, with 35 percent taking the opposite view. Forty percent see school vouchers for low-income kids as a positive; 29 percent believe vouchers are detrimental. For full poll results, go to Hoover Golden State Poll.
“The numbers aren’t a surprise given that Donald Trump was the least popular presidential candidate in California since the Great Depression and (Franklin Roosevelt’s) re-election,” said Bill Whalen, a Hoover research fellow who studies California and national politics. “What does stand out: despite other attitudinal shifts since the election, any warmer feelings about Trump haven’t touched the Golden State.”
The survey exposes deep partisan divides within California and evidence of Trump as a polarizing influence.
While 76 percent of California Republicans believe Trump will have a successful presidency, only 15 percent of Democrats and 35 percent of independents agree.
On the border wall, 72 percent of respondents who voted for Hillary Clinton believe California will be worse off if it is built while only 7 percent of Trump supporters agree.
Trump serves as a lightning rod for another immigration topic — the “sanctuary” policy that some California cities have initiated. Asked whether or not they support or oppose sanctuary cities in the United States, 40 percent of respondents said they are supportive while 41 percent oppose.
When informed that Trump opposes sanctuary cities, the percent of respondents who oppose the policy fell from 41 to 37 percent.
Despite their differences with Trump, Californians don’t necessarily want a “divorce.” By a two-to-one margin (54 percent to 27 percent), the survey’s respondents opposed the so-called “Calexit” secession movement. Only 30 percent of Democrats, 33 percent of 2016 Clinton voters and 41 percent of self-identified liberals went along with the concept.
“Despite fairly extensive coverage about California seceding from the U.S., the polling evidence clearly indicates that most Californians oppose it across party, ideology, income, race and support for presidential candidate,” said Bruce Cain, a Stanford University political scientist and the Spence and Cleone Eccles Family Director of the Bill Lane Center for the American West. “In short, the proposal is D.O.A. Californians will instead remain and resist.”
As it has for the last three years, the January Golden State Poll asked Californians about their confidence in their state and their governor.
The short answer: business as usual.
Forty-four percent of respondents see California as a model for other states (up from 39 percent a year ago) while 31 percent see things as a little or a lot better in the state compared with a year ago (up from 27 percent).
As for Gov. Jerry Brown, now in his penultimate year in office, the survey showed little change from a year ago. A majority of Californians again approve of his handling of the drought (54 percent) and economic growth (53 percent). Where Brown’s vulnerable: transportation (39 percent approval). Brown is expected to showcase the topic in next week’s State of the State Address.
Finally, the Golden State Poll asked Californians to prioritize their issue concerns. The same two topics — strengthening the economy (62 percent) and water (61 percent) — dominated, though in reverse order and by smaller percentages than in previous years. As in 2016, income inequality and prisons were at the bottom of the menu.
The January 2017 issue of Eureka, a Hoover Institution online publication focusing on policy, political and economic issues confronting California, was released in conjunction with the survey.
The issue focuses on the impact of the Trump presidency on California, including an examination of the state’s ideological divide, how to smartly redesign health care, and possible avenues for pursuing sanctuary-law changes. In addition, Hoover research fellow Tammy Frisby offers an in-depth analysis of the survey’s results.
— Marlon Bateman/Stanford News Service
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California needs to understand that they are part of this country and Trump has been elected as president. We need to work as a team, yet be ready to attempt change for the next 4 years within the system.
We have 2 years for Demos to take back the house and senate. That will be his report card. The mission now should be take over the legislative branch of government.
Wake up Democratic Party….listen to the people, as the Republican Party did! Sanders was the People’s choice, yet they went with HRC, a criminal, liar, and establishment represented.
@citizen: the Republican Party didn’t “listen to the people.”
If they had, they would not be attempting to take away people’s healthcare, their voting rights, and so much more. Example: Obamacare is more popular than Trump, according to your Fox News poll.
The GOP listened to their billionaire donors. They now nominally listen to Trump. Trump listens to Putin, among other deplorables.
Lastly: “We need to work as a team”
Did the GOP work as a team with Americans over the last 8 years? Did they give Obama’s SCOTUS nominee a hearing at all last year? Scalia passed a year ago – not even a single hearing to Advise & Consent in a year!
Teamwork?
Stop the trolling.
Citizen must be a troll.
Awful poll. Example: how does one quantify the term successful for Trump’s term?
Expect better, but it is Hoover, after all.
Honestly, we all know his election will be successful for Trump and his kids. They will make a fortune off it.
@Protests
“Did the GOP work as a team with Americans over the last 8 years? Did they give Obama’s SCOTUS nominee a hearing at all last year? Scalia passed a year ago – not even a single hearing to Advise & Consent in a year!
Teamwork?”
No, the Republicans didn’t, but in fairness to the Republicans, let’s remember why. When Obama entered office, he had large Democratic majorities and didn’t feel a need to listen to Republicans.
From a 2010 article:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/2010/10/26/obama_isn039t_interested_in_compromise_244611.html
“The decline of the Obama presidency can be traced to a meeting at the White House just three days after the inauguration, when the new president gathered congressional leaders of both parties to discuss his proposed economic stimulus. House Republican Whip Eric Cantor gave President Obama a list of modest proposals for the bill. Obama said he would consider the GOP ideas, but told the assembled Republicans that “elections have consequences” and “I won.” Backed by the largest congressional majorities in decades, the president was not terribly interested in giving ground to his vanquished adversaries.”
Since Obama wouldn’t include any Republican ideas into new legislation, the Republicans had only one alternative to maintain relevance: fight and obstruct. And when Republicans swept the 2010 elections, was it any surprise they implemented their obstructionist policy?
Obama banked his presidency on maintaining Democratic majorities. That turned out to be a poor strategy choice. He didn’t compromise early on to establish goodwill with the minority party just in case he needed their help later.
Contrast what happened during Bill Clinton’s presidency when he experienced a similar Republican wave after two years in office. Clinton still had a very productive legislative record his last six years, even though he and Republicans still had strong political spats. And that was because he was willing to compromise throughout his presidency.
To Saturday Protests in DC;
You lost, stop crying, and grow up, be an adult. All these marches around the country show the insult of Trump’s unprofessional conduct of women. Good for them to show their distaste. Yes, not a role model. Where were you and the demonstrators when all the Bill Clinton sexual misconduct happened and discovered? They and you were no where! Big double standard? You and others drank the kool aid. You and your group created the monster, now live with it.,
Hold on for the ride, you might make it through 4 years, if not Mexico and Canada might take you in.
Gee, isn’t it enough that the people in the new administration have to lie like rugs? Do you Trump fans here have ANY idea what the truth is?