Town Square

Post a New Topic

Democrats likely to lose the Senate in the 2014 Mid-Terms

Original post made by Mid Term Election Watch on Jun 19, 2014

Mid-term elections are more a referendum on the President than on the candidates for House or Senate. President Obama's 44 percent approval/51 percent disapproval ratings in the Gallup Poll for both April and May are an ominous leading indicator for the Democrats' chances in the fall mid-term congressional elections.

Obama's Gallup approval numbers have risen only a mere 3 points since last fall, when they at the nadir of 41 percent largely due to the disastrous launch of HealthCare.gov. That pitiful and meager improvement has leveled off with his ratings still being abysmal and are comparable to his numbers just before the 2010 election, when the Democrats lost 63 House and six Senate seats.

Six of the critical Democratic-held Senate seats up this year are in states that Mitt Romney carried by 14 points or more in 2012. And, it's safe to say that Obama's job-approval ratings in these states are significantly lower than his national numbers.

Another problem exacerbating the Democrats chances in the mid-terms is the general perception that, regardless of whether one agrees with the administration's policies, that Obama officials lack competence. That on simple matters of policy execution whether it is the handling the economy, the launch of HealthCare.gov, the general administration of the Affordable Care Act, or problems with the VA, they seem like the 3 Stooges. The steady erosion of voters' confidence in the Obama administration further hampers the Democrats' ability to bounce back from these negative events.

Comments (10)

Posted by oldtimer, a resident of Menlo Park: Downtown
on Jun 19, 2014 at 5:29 pm

Going along with this, a new Gallup poll has Americans rating Congress at an all time low.

The new Gallup survey, which was conducted from June 5-8, shows that only 7 percent of respondents have "a great deal" or "quite a lot" of confidence in Congress.

.........

For perspective, when Gallup first started gathering polling data on Congress in 1973, the same year Richard Nixon accepted responsibility, but not total blame, for the Watergate scandal, Congress enjoyed an approval rating of 42 percent.

Talk about needing new faces in Congress, we certainly do.

See:

Web Link


Posted by teh repugs, a resident of Atherton: Lindenwood
on Jun 20, 2014 at 8:01 am

1. the launch of HealthCare.gov - was fixed, without help from the republicans
2. the general administration of the Affordable Care Act - has resulted in more insured Americans than ever before
3. or problems with the VA - the fix that was filibustered by republicans in February, which has been agreed to in the last month

Name the 6 seats the republicans will win to take over the senate. I see maybe five.

Then, in 2016, the Dems pick all of the losses back up as the senate re-election map turns in the Dems favor as teh repugs defend their 2010 loons.


Posted by same ol same ol, a resident of Menlo Park: Sharon Heights
on Jun 20, 2014 at 11:35 am

Our local fringe tea bag lady is back, posting the same noise as her previous threads. She will keep throwing (spaghetti) against the wall and see what sticks, but will never engage when her points are disproved and never respond to questions.

Same one sided dialogue of the deaf, with only the far fringe on the right being the deaf side.

Witness this question for our fringie neighbor: can you tell us which republican polls better than Obama?

Obviously, not a single one. As to the President's polling numbers, in this highly partisan age, I predict no president will ever poll better than Obama by their 6th year, short of a legitimate war or other catastrophe pulling the country together. What were formerly thought of as bad numbers are the new reality.

As to the Senate races, now that the Right doesn't have ObamaCare to run on (no replacement plan,) Immigration (no plan/no vote,) or Benghazi (was never a story, and Obama pulled a Bin Ladin by getting the ringleader this week,) I think it''s a tossup. My prediction? GOP +5, but McConnell loses.


Fringe-neighbor: can you tell us which republican polls better than Obama?


Seems the last poll done on Romney had him about 5 million below Obama....




Posted by Dream on Liberals, a resident of Atherton: West Atherton
on Jun 20, 2014 at 2:14 pm

The Senate is a done deal and the House will have increased margins. The Democrats should be thankful that the Senate won't have 67 Republicans. Nonetheless, Obama is a lame duck and the great socialist experiment is over. The next president will have the daunting task of trying to repair the damage Obama has inflicted on the country.

Obama received the Nobel Peace prize on the expectation that he would bring Northern European Socialism to this country and to a large extent he succeeded. The next president will have significant challenges ahead for him or her. It will take at least two terms to undo the damage Obama has caused our country. He has definitely beat Jimmy Carter for the ignominious title of the Worst President in the History of the United States.


Posted by Fox hyperbole, a resident of Woodside High School
on Jun 20, 2014 at 3:49 pm

@same ol = yes, the righties will never address other posts for two reasons:
1. it's the same poster (see previous threads, all the same stuff)
2. and, of course, he doesn't have an answer, just hyperbole and other noise

So yes, they are either deaf, dumb, or.... well, you know.

==============================

@dream on = A factless post, with just a bunch of partisan hyperbole. 67 seats? Ha, funny - dream on. "great socialist experiment" wth? "Northern European Socialism ... he succeeded" - pure fox/insanity.

"Worst President in the History of the United States." Not even close - we are still digging out of the Bush Great Recession and his ill-advised wars. Bush is in the running with Harding, Jackson, Hoover, Nixon and the rest - Carter doesn't even make the bottom ten; ask anyone not on Fox.

==============================

So here's a couple questions for @dream-on and all the follow on right wing posters (especially if not the same guy over and over):

- from above: "tell us which Republican polls better than Obama?"

- name the republican that can beat the Democrat in 2016. What if it is Hillary, who can beat her?

Specifics would be nice, but you have shown that that's not within your grasp, so the bar is low.


Posted by Fox hyperbole, a resident of Woodside High School
on Jun 20, 2014 at 3:51 pm

One other request from above not addressed: "Name the 6 seats the republicans will win to take over the senate."

Truly, one side is deaf, as @same-ol pointed out....


Posted by pogo, a resident of Woodside: other
on Jun 20, 2014 at 8:11 pm

pogo is a registered user.

As of today...

There are 3 Democrat Senate seats that WILL almost certainly go Republican: Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia.

There are 4 more Democrat Senate seats that are LIKELY to go Republican: North Carolina, Iowa, Louisiana, Alaska.

There are at least 3 other Democratic Senate seats that are at high risk of turning red: Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia. They are currently rated toss-ups.

There are ZERO Republican Senate seats at risk.

All of this is as of today.

There you have it.


Posted by Willy, a resident of Atherton: Lindenwood
on Jun 21, 2014 at 1:25 pm

Willy is a registered user.


As of today: With all due respect, we disagree on a number of races, from several "likely's" being perhaps just "leans" or even a toss-up. We definitely disagree on "ZERO Republican seats at risk" - ask Mitch and Elaine Chao how they spend their evenings and weekends recently!

1. "There are at least 3 other Democratic Senate seats that are at high risk of turning red: Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia. " : Uh, except that Georgia can't turn red when it already has two republican Senators: Saxby and Isaakson. Nunn will probably lose, keeping GA red. I think that although it leans red, Arkansas is close, Pryor has work to do, as does Udall in CO. While we disagree about the level of lean/likely, they're probably red. But watch Pryor - he has the lead in a number of polls going back 3 months.

2. "3 Democrat Senate seats that WILL almost certainly go Republican": Yes.

3. "There are 4 more Democrat Senate seats that are LIKELY to go Republican: North Carolina, Iowa, Louisiana, Alaska."
- Alaska hasn't even primaried yet. Begich will make it close, maybe lean R, not "LIKELY". We Disagree (slightly) on AK.
- Iowa is not LIKELY R. Enzi 'castrated' her primary opponent, but picking her as LIKELY against Braley is a reach. We Disagree (slightly) on IA.
- Louisiana has Landrieu, but it is Lean R, not LIKELY R. We Disagree (slightly) on LA.
- North Carolina: Hagen can beat Tillis, polls show it close enough to rate a toss-up, clearly not LIKELY. We Disagree (significantly) on NC.

4. "There are ZERO Republican Senate seats at risk." whaaaaaa??????? A simple mistake or completely disingenuous? Kentucky has been a toss-up for months. While I think McConnell will eventually pull it out, Grimes is giving him the fight of his life, actually ahead in a number of polls, including being up a couple in this month's R poll from Magellan.

"There are ZERO Republican Senate seats at risk. All of this is as of today. There you have it." Yeah, not so much.



The 2014 map is is the Democratic's defense of their huge gains in 2008, and therefore was always a tough row to hoe. Whatever numbers they lose in 2014, the Democrats are poised to take back in 2016, when the Republicans have to defend their 2010 seats (a number of weak incumbents among a very blue favorable map.) Given this, and a blue White House for the next two years, a brief loss of the Senate isn't as bad for the Democrats as it could be. No one is expecting much from the Senate at this juncture for the next two years either way (except on judges, or heaven forbid, one of the supremes keels over.)

The current over/under is five and half seats. Don't know who gets the half. Watch out for Grimes, Pryor, Braley (actually mostly because Enzi is a rookie) Begich and Hagen.

There you have it.



Posted by pogo, a resident of Woodside: other
on Jul 16, 2014 at 1:44 pm

pogo is a registered user.

Today's Washington Post predicted Republicans would take the Senate by a 52-48 margin.

Web Link

Let the conversation of the deaf begin.


Posted by Willy, a resident of Atherton: Lindenwood
on Jul 16, 2014 at 5:34 pm

Willy is a registered user.

"Let the conversation of the deaf begin." the deaf? or just the blind?


Look at the tabs from your link. For example, they've got Kentucky at 99% for a McConnell win.

Kentucky - Alison Lundergan Grimes
Chance of winning: < 1%
Funds raised**: $8,089,118

INCUMBENT Mitch McConnell
Chance of winning: > 99%
Funds raised**: $11,975,546


99%? Now go look at all the recent polling.

If you wish not to converse, that's your prerogative. If you seek to be blind, well.....


from RCP, so take it fwiw
RCP Average 5/14 - 6/5 -- -- 45.8 44.3 McConnell +1.5


Magellan Strategies (R) 6/4 - 6/5 808 LV 3.5 46 49 Grimes +3
Rasmussen Reports 5/28 - 5/29 750 LV 4.0 48 41 McConnell +7
Wenzel Strategies (R) 5/23 - 5/24 608 LV 4.0 47 44 McConnell +3
Courier-Journal/SurveyUSA* 5/14 - 5/16 1475 LV 2.6 42 43 Grimes +1



Give me 99 to 1? I'll take that one all day long, and twice on Sundays.


If you were a member and logged in you could track comments from this story.

To post your comment, please click here to login

Remember me?
Forgot Password?
or register. This topic is only for those who have signed up to participate by providing their email address and establishing a screen name.

Breastfeeding Tips
By Jessica T | 8 comments | 1,177 views

Who Says Kids Donít Eat Vegetables?
By Laura Stec | 5 comments | 1,018 views

Community Service Helps You, Too
By John Raftrey and Lori McCormick | 1 comment | 795 views

Weekly Update
By Cheryl Bac | 0 comments | 753 views

Separate Entrances for BMR and Market Rate Apartments?
By Stuart Soffer | 0 comments | 435 views